Sunday, January 13, 2008

"That Night, Fate Wore a Cummerbund...of Suspense"

Golden Globes Preview: Hot on the heels of my brilliant NFL Playoff prognosticating (no, I'm not done bragging about it) and largely ignoring my middling performance in the Yahoo! College Bowl Pick 'Em (don't ask) and my disastrous Emmy projections (sadly, available here), here are my Golden Globe picks. Stay tuned for a forthcoming TV Year in Review (probably in the next couple of weeks) and a Movies Year in Review (likely not until February, since I need to go see many of the major award contenders--specifically: Atonement, There Will Be Blood, Juno, and several others--before I can pass judgment). I'll also be kicking off my Best of the Decade series in the next few weeks. First up (by popular--and, by "popular," I mean, "received 7 votes"--demand): the 1990s.

Should've been nominated in green; should win in blue; will win in red. If it's just red, that means I think it should and will win (comparatively rare).


1. BEST MOTION PICTURE DRAMA: I've only seen four of these (AG, NCFOM, MC, and, just this weekend, EP), though I read Atonement in Ireland. No Country is my favorite (and, in my view, the best movie of the year). I also loved Michael Clayton, and Eastern Promises was much better than I was anticipating. Gangster left me feeling cold--it just wasn't that original, or, for that matter, interesting. All of that said, there seems to be a groundswell for Blood, even though it might prove to be too dark for Foreign Press voters. I just get the feeling that Country isn't going to win.

American Gangster
Eastern Promises
The Great Debaters
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

2. BEST MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY: haven't seen any of these (except for the unnominated flicks I've added; re: Superbad in particular: I never cease to be annoyed by the snobbery of these Award committees...funny is funny, and that's really all that should matter), so I can't really comment. Would love to see Juno get it, but it'll probably be Sweeney Todd.

Across the Universe
Charlie Wilson's War
Sweeney Todd
Knocked Up

3. BEST DIRECTOR: I hate that they combine this into one category, but so be it. The Coens direct the shit out of Country. Enough said.

Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

4. BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA: Strong category, aside from yet another incredibly overrated performance by Denzel (honestly, the best thing I've seen him in this decade is probably Deja Vu). Up until Saturday night, Clooney was my pick, but Viggo blew me away in Eastern Promises, which is the kind of performance that commands your attention (except for the full frontal nudity during one fight scene, which commands that you hide your eyes). Regardless, there doesn't appear to be any stopping the DDL train. This'll be his.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
James McEvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

5. BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA: Blanchett will get a supporting actress win, so we can forget about her (plus The Golden Age--amazingly--is supposed to be atrocious). I think Christie will win this, though Knightley, much to Carrie's consternation (she has an irrational hatred of young Keira), might sneak in.

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement

6. BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY: Apparently PSH is brilliant in The Savages, but I don't see anyone stopping Depp. Hey, did you know that Depp had no formal musical training prior to this film? Oh, you've heard that 65,000 times in the past month? My bad. (Ryan Gosling is always terrific, but I'm guessing he was better in Half-Nelson.)

Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
John C. Reilly, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

7. BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY: Combined age of the five nominees here is around 100, with 65 of those coming from HBC (kidding). No clue here, as I haven't seen any of these. Page winning would be awesome, but they're probably more inclined to go with the younger actress with a bit more experience (translation: the Hollywood Foreign Press is hip, but not that hip).

Amy Adams, Enchanted
Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno

8. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: What a great collection of actors here, and John Travolta. Wilkinson almost deserves this award solely on the basis of his opening monologue in MC (fantastic), and I've been a big fan of his since In The Bedroom, but this absolutely has to go to Bardem, who literally could not have been better in No Country. Has to.

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
John Travolta, Hairspray
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Superbad

9. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: isn't Julia Roberts almost a dude at this point? I'm a little creeped out that she's supposed to be this bombshell in Charlie Wilson's War. Pretty strong category here, but it's basically impossible for Blanchett to lose, so we should just move on.

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War
Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

10. BEST SCREENPLAY: Philosophical question: having read the novel and having seen the film and knowing that the two are virtually identical (as in: some scenes in the film are taken, word for word, from the book), can the Coen brothers really win for best screenplay? The short answer is, of course, yes (and they'll be a shoe-in for the Best Adapted Screenplay come Oscar time), but, at the same time, there's no denying that the degree of difficulty isn't quite there for the two of them: the source material is just so good. I'm hoping they win, but I get this feeling that the HFP wants to reward Sorkin (who wrote, in case you've forgotten, A Few Good Men before moving on to create The West Wing, Sports Night, and--shudder--Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip). We'll see.

Diablo Cody, Juno
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

11. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: I know, I know, Ratatouille is supposed to be terrific. I just can't shake the notion that The Simpsons Movie (which I have seen and was good but by no means great) is considerably funnier.

Bee Movie

The Simpsons Movie

12. BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Sorry, Kite Runner, you're disqualified. Try reading the category name before entering next time. I'm excited to see Diving Bell and Persepolis, but the former--by virtue of its Best Director nod--should win.

4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days (Romania)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (France/U.S.)
The Kite Runner (U.S.)
Lust, Caution (Taiwan)
Persepolis (France)


13. BEST DRAMA TV SERIES: give me a fucking break, Hollywood Foreign Press! You've nominated seven shows and this category is still terrible. Hoping to start Damages this week (really, what isn't fascinating about a show about filing a class action lawsuit?) and I have feeling it's the best of the bunch. Hoping to catch the rest of Mad Men this month too (my parents are quite high on it) and it'll likely win. But really, this category is a joke. I'll limit my remaining comment to the only show I actually watch on this list: please stop rewarding House for subpar seasons--it'll only encourage the writers to get lazier and lazier with their storylines.

Big Love
Grey's Anatomy
Mad Men
The Tudors
The Sopranos
Battlestar Galactica

14. BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY TV SERIES: Mixed bag here, with two extremely strong shows (30 Rock and Extras), one very good show (Pushing Daisies), one that's a shell of its former self (Entourage), and one downright stinker (guess). Just as an aside: am I to believe that Showtime blew its entire marketing budget on The Tudors and Californication and thus had no money at all to promote Dexter. Because, really, that's the only possible way those two shows get nominated and it doesn't. If so: well done, morons. I'm torn between Tina Fey and Ricky Gervais here. Both are at the top of their game, but I think that--given she's on network television--the degree of difficulty is much higher for Fey (I'm still amazed that lemon party joke got through, even if I didn't get it at the time--thanks, Ryan), than Gervais, so I'm inclined to with 30 Rock.

30 Rock
Pushing Daisies
The Office
How I Met Your Mother
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
South Park

15. BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: I've actually worn myself out with all this Dexter being snubbed talk these past few months, so I'll just say: Hall clearly deserves to win...but I know he won't. (My guess: the new guy in the category...even though his character is a pretty big asshole.) Let's move on. Fun fact about Jonathan Rhys-Meyers: everyone in Ireland hates his guts (granted, this is all coming from my very unscientific poll of me asking people about him). He's like the male Kirsten Dunst over there.

Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Bill Paxton, Big Love
Jonathan Rhys Meyers, The Tudors
James Gandolfini, The Sopranos [am I missing something here? Is the show not eligible?]
Matthew Fox, Lost

16. BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: Holy God! Probably easier to list who wasn't nominated here. And yet, there's not much to get excited about here. Probably a three-horse race between Close, Falco, and Field (who won the Emmy in the same category and whom I'm ignoring from this point forward)--you could make an argument for Hunter here, though I've never watched the show. Though my sense is that Close's body of work this season was stronger than the other two (if only because Falco was--comparatively--given little to do in the final season), I still think Falco wins it, if only for her devastating argument with Tony (when he tells her that he hopes her spec home collapses--in one single blow, totally undermining everything she'd done in the past year).

Patricia Arquette, Medium
Glenn Close, Damages
Minnie Driver, The Riches
Edie Falco, The Sopranos
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

17. BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY TV SERIES: This is the easiest one to summarize by far: Baldwin, by virtue of the scene where he acts (in character) as every single member of Tracy Jordan's immediate family, deserves to win hands-down. Gervais was great, but it shouldn't even be close. (And Duchovny? Get the hell out of here. I love you, but even you can't save this show.)

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
David Duchovny, Californication
Ricky Gervais, Extras
Lee Pace, Pushing Daisies

18. BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY TV SERIES: Hmmm...good category (although they jumped the gun with Applegate--the show was barely even on the air when the nominations came out). I like Friel quite a bit on Daisies, but I've gotta go with my girl Tina Fey here.

Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?
America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Anna Friel, Pushing Daisies
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

19. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE: Have I mentioned how much I hate that they do this category this way? How do you judge a supporting actor in a sitcom (who might get 7 or 8 minutes in his featured episode) with someone who is in a four or eight hour miniseries? Lots of silly snubs here, but, of the lot of them, Danson is likely the best, but Sutherland--who, in fairness, deserves a better show--may well win.

Ted Danson, Damages
Kevin Dillon, Entourage
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Andy Serkis, Longford
William Shatner, Boston Legal
Donald Sutherland, Dirty Sexy Money
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Henry Ian Cusick, Lost
Michael Emerson, Lost
John C. McGinley, Scrubs
All three of the young guys from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia [but probably Charlie]
Eric King, Dexter [who, interestingly, seems to have learned how to act between S1 and S2]
Keith Carradine, Dexter

20. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE: Hard to get too excited about this one. Pressly is always good for a laugh.

Rose Byrne, Damages
Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Samantha Morton, Longford
Anna Paquin, Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee
Jaime Pressly, My Name Is Earl
Colby Smothers, How I Met Your Mother
Sarah Chalke, Scrubs [she deserves to be nominated at least once]
Elizabeth Mitchell, Lost

5 Days
Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee
The Company
The State Within

And that's that. Now all I have to do is sit back and wait and see how wrong I am. Good times.
Recap: the results are in and I was cool (read: "mediocre") 11 of 21. Can't say I'm surprised about Piven beating out Sutherland, but Duchovny getting the nod over Gervais, Baldwin, and Carell is driving me crazy. Was it the part where he threw up because he was so high? If so, I understand--that's a skill you can't teach.


Jesse said...

I'm presuming you already know that/why The Wire is ineligible?

Kyle Wasko said...

Good question...and I actually looked it up before I started writing this (as I've just recently gotten into the show). Season 4 of The Wire began on September 1, 2006 and ended early in December of that year, so I believe it was only eligible for last year's Golden Globes. S5 didn't start until this year, so it'll be eligible for the 2009 awards.

Now...why it was snubbed last year is an altogether different question...and one that I don't have an answer to.

What do you think about S5 so far? I like the newspaper angle.

RT Murphy said...

1) I'm glad to see that you're warming up to IASiP. I can assume that Charlie's transitions into outright screaming are starting to win you over? I must say, there are some great moments (particularly with his estranged "son").

2) Californication took it, proving that the theme for this year is that writing really doesn't matter when it comes to the Golden Globes. Zing!.

3) remember to contact me when you want to go see Juno
(or There Will Be Blood)!

4) The Great Debaters, while like the Vatican of boring movies, was a confoundedly boring movie. I'm glad it didn't take much (if anything).

5) I was actually under the impression that Depp was nothing particularly special in Sweeney Todd, H-B Carter doubly so. That said, I probably won't end up watching it for another decade or so. Musicals.

6) I would agree that a screenplay, even with heavy source, still stands or falls on its own merits. In my experience, a few snappy lines of dialog (words on a page) is perhaps 20-30% (tops) of what actually makes a good script- the rest being shooting directions, prop instructions, and cuts/timing (and so forth). See: Pitfalls, Harry Potter 5.

7) While Baldwin was a shoe-in, I'm saddened by the lack of Carell love. This season has been his best yet (particularly the call centre stuff and anything with Jan).

8) Go go John C. McGinley love. Props to you for the respect. He's been a beacon in an otherwise subpar season for Scrubs.

Mark P said...

Commenting here because it's the most recent place....holy crap, that Federer match was something else. I was (of course) up later last night and was channel-surfing, and ended up staying to watch the end.

What does it say about Federer's dominance that Tipsarevic got more out of his narrow loss than he would have out of any actual win (except possibly against Nadal)?